Most people lose money in markets because they trade what prices are doing. The Method trades what’s happening to expectations. This is the eight-step framework I use to analyze equities and structure options trades with defined risk — the same process behind a 97.71% return in 2025.
Below is the full framework. Each step shows what it accomplishes, the core question it answers, and the inputs I actually use. The complete written methodology, case studies, and decision rules are in the paid product.
Every trade runs through all eight. If a name can’t clear a step, the trade stops there. The edge comes from discipline, not intuition.
What environment are we trading in right now?
Markets aren’t neutral. They reward different strategies in different regimes. Before looking at any single name, I assess the macro backdrop — economic momentum, inflation and rate direction, liquidity conditions, and how those forces affect equity valuations.
If the backdrop is hostile, I reduce exposure or structure trades defensively. If it’s supportive, I allow for more aggressive positioning. Without a macro lens, stock picking happens in a vacuum.
Is this a real company with a real business I can value?
Every idea starts with a company that has real revenues, real earnings or a clear path to them, and institutional coverage. No penny stocks. No crypto narratives. No “pure technical setups.” If a company can’t be valued, it can’t be traded rationally.
The goal at this step is to find reasons to say no quickly. Most names fail on fundamentals. That’s fine — the fewer names I spend time on, the more attention each one that survives deserves.
Where should this stock trade if expectations normalize?
Before touching options, I set a target price using historical and forward P/E and P/S multiples applied to next year’s earnings and sales. That gives a target based on how the market has actually valued the business — not a number pulled from thin air.
If the gap between price and value doesn’t support a minimum 3:1 ROI on the options structure, the idea stops here. No mispricing, no trade. This threshold is the discipline that kills most ideas and protects the ones that survive.
What will force the market to reassess this name?
Prices don’t move because charts look good. They move because expectations change. Every trade needs a specific, identifiable event that can shift expectations inside the trade window.
Catalysts change options prices, not just stock prices. A clear catalyst is what makes the asymmetric payoff possible. No catalyst means no structural reason to expect movement — and no reason to be in the trade.
What must happen, by when, for the thesis to work?
I don’t predict. I structure scenarios. For every trade I define what must happen for the thesis to work, what invalidates it, and the time horizon for the catalyst to play out.
Most trades last weeks to a few months. Time matters intensely with options — a right thesis with a wrong expiry is still a losing trade. The time window is as much a constraint as the price target.
What’s the right implementation for this thesis?
Options are the implementation, not the strategy. Structure is chosen to match the thesis, time horizon, and risk profile. Every trade has a defined maximum loss, known and accepted before entry.
Selection depends on implied volatility level, time to catalyst, and liquidity. High IV favors spreads. Low IV favors outright longs. Liquidity and tight bid/ask spreads are non-negotiable.
How much capital goes into any single idea?
Being wrong is normal. Blowing up is optional. The book runs 15–20 non-correlated positions across different sectors, industries, and catalysts. Similar sizing across trades. No single position with a chance to materially damage the portfolio.
Consistency comes from process, not conviction. The best trade of the year still can’t be allowed to wipe out the portfolio if the thesis turns out wrong.
Has anything changed that should change the position?
Once in a trade, I monitor three things: whether the fundamentals have changed, whether the catalyst is still valid, and how option pricing is evolving. Trades are adjusted or closed when the thesis breaks, the target is reached, or the risk/reward deteriorates.
Hope is not a strategy. Rules are. Every exit is a rules-driven decision, not a feelings-driven one — which is what keeps a losing trade from becoming a catastrophic one.
Markets are uncertain. A disciplined framework is how you operate anyway. That’s the Method.
One closed trade, walked through all eight steps. Entered August 5, 2025. Closed August 11, 2025. ~100% return on premium paid, over six days.
Celsius had lost 80% of its value from the May 2024 peak after distribution concerns with its PepsiCo partnership. Wall Street slashed revenue and earnings estimates. The stock was repriced as a riskier, uncertain growth story.
But the underlying business kept moving. Walmart and Costco agreements. The Alani Nu acquisition in early 2025, opening access to the female segment and adding shelf space. Stable margins and strong international growth in the Q1 2025 print. Analysts began revising estimates higher to reflect the Alani contribution.
By August, ahead of the Q2 earnings release, the setup cleared every Method filter: a specific catalyst (earnings), a defined thesis (management executes on turnaround narrative), a 3:1 minimum ROI on the structure at the target price, and a calendar-spread structure that matched the time horizon and the implied volatility environment.
The full walkthrough covers the target-setting logic, the specific calendar-spread construction (strikes, expiries, premium math), the scenario analysis across bull/base/bear outcomes, the exit decision, and the honest assessment of what worked and what I’d do differently next time.
~2,000 words. The complete eight-step walkthrough with the target math, structure mechanics, and exit rationale. Delivered as a PDF, free.
The full written methodology, expanded and organized module by module. More case studies. Reference frameworks you can use on your own book from day one. One purchase, yours to keep.
Why “Version 1.0.” The initial release is the full written methodology. Video walkthroughs and additional case studies follow later this year. Early buyers get everything as it ships, and lock in the lower price. When video ships, pricing moves to $349 for new buyers.
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